Intelligent data analysis of the influence of COVID-19 on the stock market using Case Based Reasoning
Keywords:Forecast, Prediction, Covid-19, Stock Markets, Case-Based Reasonig (CBR), Analogy Learning
Starting with the differences between forecasting and prediction and going deeper into prediction, a knowledge-based model is presented. The evolution of the stocks markets are analyzed, as well as how the epidemics and pandemics prior to the stock markets have affected them and how it is currently being affected by covid-19. The defined model is applied to a use case using Case-Based Reasoning (CBR): it makes an analogy between the 2008 crisis with the covid-19 crisis in 2020 to predict whether the stock markets will take more or less time to recover.
Selvin, S., Vinayakumar, R., Gopalakrishnan, E. A., Menon, V. K., & Soman, K. P. (2017, September). Stock price prediction using LSTM, RNN and CNN-sliding window model. In 2017 international conference on advances in computing, communications and informatics (icacci) (pp. 1643-1647). IEEE.
Minh, D. L., Sadeghi-Niaraki, A., Huy, H. D., Min, K., & Moon, H. (2018). Deep learning approach for short-term stock trends prediction based on two-stream gated recurrent unit network. IEEE Access, 6, pp. 55392-55404.
Sezer, O. B., Gudelek, M. U., & Ozbayoglu, A. M. (2020). Financial time series forecasting with deep learning: A systematic literature review: 2005–2019. Applied Soft Computing, 90, p. 106181
Stuparu, D., Bachmann, D., Bogaard, T., Twigt, D., Verkade, J., de Bruijn, K., & de Leeuw, A. (2017). Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts Vol. 19, p. 17173.
Ding, S., Hipel, K. W., & Dang, Y. G. (2018). Forecasting China's electricity consumption using a new grey prediction model. Energy, 149, pp. 314-328.
Nojek, S., Britos, P., Rossi, B., & García Martínez, R. (2003). Sales Forecast: Comparison of Neural Network Based Forecast versus Statistical Method. Technical Reports in Software Engineering, 5(1), 1-12. (In Spanish).
Noy, I., & Shields, S. (2019). The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic: A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs.
Gormsen, N. J., & Koijen, R. S. (2020). Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations. University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Pa-per, 2020-22.
Albulescu, C. (2020). Coronavirus and oil price crash: A note. arXiv preprint arXiv:2003.06184.
Fan, V. Y., Jamison, D. T., & Summers, L. H. (2016). The inclusive cost of pandemic influ-enza risk (No. w22137). National Bureau of Economic Research
The Top 20 Economies in the Worldhttps://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/, last accessed 2020/06/01.
World Map index Stock market. https://markets.businessinsider.com/indices, last accessed 2020/06/01.
The WTO authorizes the US to apply tariffs to the EU on products worth EUR 6.9 million. https://www.expansion.com/mercados/cronica-bolsa/2019/10/03/5d958c67e5fdeaca3e8b4601.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
How will Jo Cox's murder affect the outcome of Brexit?, https://www.expansion.com/economia/politica/2016/06/16/5762ce1be2704e0d668b458d.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
Win the Brexit. United Kingdom decides to leave the European Union. https://www.elmundo.es/internacional/2016/06/23/576c25c7268e3ea6468b458a.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
Stock markets also hate Mondays: the worst day of the week to invest, https://www.eleconomista.es/mercados-cotizaciones/noticias/9119355/05/18/La-bolsa-tambien-odia-los-lunes-es-el-peor-dia-de-la-semana-para-invertir.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/, last accessed 2020/06/01.
COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, last ac-cessed 2020/06/01.
University of Valencia, Spain. Predictive model of infected covid-19. http://covid19.webs.upv.es/, last accessed 2020/06/01.
Confirmed cases in Spain and around the world and keys to understanding the coronavirus.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/03/16/actualidad/1584379038_891570.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidem-ic? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/paper/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2jIuxTB8-6iB9dxDtGQo81SpE_UVA-aiAPEp0_NGe5zjohcTV3fSfEAaY#sec1, last accessed 2020/06/01.
Stock market panic over China: The Ibex25 crash 5% in the biggest fall in three years. https://www.expansion.com/mercados/cronica-bolsa/2015/08/24/55dab957268e3e6b6d8b456b.html, last accessed 2020/06/01.
Saudi Arabia vs Russia: the price war that sank the value of oil and the world's stock markets in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-51796524, last accessed 2020/06/01.