A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence

  • Antonio Lorenzo Sánchez Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0752-6980
  • Jose Angel Olivas Information Technologies and Systems Institute, University of Castilla La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain.
Keywords: Business Intelligence, Expert Knowledge, Forecast, Methodology, Prediction

Abstract

In the field of data analysis, it is common not to distinguish clearly between prediction and forecast. Although the results of both processes may tend to converge, the mechanisms used in each case tend to be completely different. Prediction has to do with statistical extrapolation and estimation and forecasting can consider expert judgments on the subject. A methodology is proposed to carry out this latter task, with a mechanism that uses both historical and current data with the judgement of an expert. The methodology is applied to the case study of the Spanish general elections of April 2019.

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Published
2019-10-10
How to Cite
Lorenzo Sánchez, A., & Olivas, J. (2019). A Case Study of Forecasting Elections Results: Beyond Prediction based on Business Intelligence. Journal of Computer Science and Technology, 19(2), e14. https://doi.org/10.24215/16666038.19.e14
Section
Original Articles